Saturday, August 18, 2007

The S curve and the Indian Software Industry...

Except for a brief period of 2001-2003 (collapse of internet bubble followed by 9/11), the present generation has only seen the rise of Indian IT industry, right from the inception in mid 70's, through the slow growth of 80's and phenomenal growth in 90's and beyond...and all of us believe that this phenomenon will continue till eternity.

But every system which goes up eventually slows down when the constraints gain more significance. While the timing remains a question mark, the slowdown in the present model is inevitable. Can we look over the horizon and recognize these constraints ? Possibly yes, at least I think the following factors are significant and need serious consideration...

The quality of manpower. The industry was build by people with phenomenal ability and attitude who worked against every constraint to win against very difficult odds. Times have changed now ! Financial returns in a profession take precedence over interest and ability of individuals while they make a career choice. I no longer see those great engineers I frequently encountered during the mid 80's...

The decline in the educational standards. The less said is better here. There has been mass commercialization of education and the quality has steadily declined. I think the most critical factor is that the quest to discover and learn has taken a backseat. In today's world education is all about acquiring tags and encashing them. Unfortunately, we are not alone and the phenomenon seems to be universal.

Too much reliance on a single geography and business model. As we have seen in the recent Re. vs. US$ exchange rate swings, small flutter in this model can have significant implications. While many companies are making efforts to mitigate this risk, the rate of change is not adequate.

Ignoring the competition. This is a classical mistake emerging out of success across time and industries. While the competition may seem to be insignificant, but it is gaining traction.

The unexpected event ! Do we ever think of emerging development models which do not require design, coding and testing (bread and butter of IT industry) and are we ready to restructure ourselves, if any of that happens in near future ?

One closing remark ! My personal opinion is that everything will continue to look like the same as before and nothing will change in the short term. However addressing these fundamental issues will ensure our long term competitiveness...

1 comment:

dangiankit said...

Nice thoughts.

But then, can you brief about the period between 2001-2003. The reasons for the pitfalls and how did we overcome them? I believe, that shall address some of the issues discussed in the post.